Barclays Capital: Ad Revenue to Shrink 10% in 2009

http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/special-reports/studies/e3i8cb71d29182efee65a11f845b64c6872

The firm now projects that total U.S. ad dollars will come in at $252.1 billion next year, down from $280 million in 2007. That’s a pronounced drop-off from Barclays' October estimates, which had overall ad spend declining 5.5 percent in 2009.

Local advertising is likely to get the short end of the stick, with Barclays eyeballing a 12.2 percent year-over-year decrease, to $99.2 billion. National ad spend is expected to fall 8.4 percent to $152.9 billion.

At particular risk is print, with magazine ad revenue expected to backslide by 15 percent to $10.8 billion and newspapers looking at a 17 percent dropoff ($28.7 billion). TV station revenue could drop as much as 15.5 percent in 2009, with local and national spot expected to add up to $20.7 billion.Broadcast also is due for a reversal, as Barclays now believes the big four network TV outlets will fall 10 percent to $14.5 billion, versus its previous projection of negative 8 percent. And while the firm only two months ago saw cable increasing its take by 1.8 percent, Barclays now sees national cable dropping 2.9 percent in ‘09, to $20.2 billion.

Only the Internet seems to stand a chance to grow next year, as Barclays predicts a 6.1 percent spurt in the sector, with ad dollars hitting the $25.1 billion mark. Search could grow by as much as 20 percent, while display will show more moderate development, increasing by 4 percent.